Northern Rock crisis 'yet to hit consumer confidence'

03-10-2007

Northern Rock crisis 'yet to hit consumer confidence'
Consumer confidence rose in September despite the ongoing unrest of the financial markets, new research has found.

Nationwide's latest consumer confidence index rose five points to 99 last month, the highest level since May.

However the lender warned that the majority of the survey was carried out before the damaging run on Northern Rock, when savers rushed to withdraw their cash from the bank after it revealed that it had turned to the Bank of England for emergency funding.

Nationwide said that the debacle, which followed liquidity problems faced by Northern Rock in the wake of a global credit crunch, was likely to impact on consumer sentiment in the coming weeks.

The warning comes after separate research last week which said that the Northern Rock crisis had dented the optimism of the nation's shoppers.

Research group GfK NOP said its consumer confidence barometer recorded a three-point drop in September, claiming that shopper sentiment showed a marked deterioration after the Northern Rock affair half-way through the month.

Nationwide said today that the rise in confidence recorded by its consumer survey was probably the result of optimism about the labour market.

Of those consumers questioned by Nationwide, 60 per cent said they were positive about the number of jobs currently available, up from 51 per cent in August.

"The pick up in confidence has been largely driven by confidence in the labour market," said Nationwide chief economist Fionnuala Earley.

"When people feel secure in their employment it is perhaps not surprising that their general confidence levels are more robust," she added.

However Ms Earley subsequently warned: "Early indications suggest that consumers may have been more affected by the initial run on Northern Rock, but any lasting effects will be dominated by the impact of recent events on the real economy."

Analysts are now predicting that the Bank of England could cut interest rates by the end of the year in order to boost the economy, with monetary policymakers set to make their latest rates decision tomorrow.


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