MPC split on rate rise

25-01-2007

MPC split on rate rise
The Bank of England's monetary policy committee (MPC) was split on its decision to raise interest rates by a quarter point earlier this month.

On January 11th the MPC decided in its monthly meeting to raise the base rate for the third time in five months, taking the base rate to 5.25 per cent in a widely unexpected move.

The minutes of that meeting, published today, reveal that five of the nine-member MPC voted for the rise, with the other four members all voting to keep rates at their present level.

As all agreed that "the balance of risks to the outlook for inflation had shifted upwards", the only question was whether to postpone another rate rise.

Four members believed that "there was insufficient news to warrant an immediate increase", pointing to predictions that inflation is due to fall back in the second half of this year.

But "for a majority of members there was already sufficient evidence to justify an increase… and no compelling reason to delay".

Already aware of December's consumer price inflation rate rising to three per cent, these members believed that "there was a risk that the 50 basis points rise in bank rate since August might not be sufficient to keep demand and inflation expectations in check and an early increase in rates might prevent larger increases later".

Today's minutes follow a speech by Bank of England governor and MPC chairperson Mervyn King, who voted in favour of the rise.

Addressing the Birmingham Chambers of Commerce last night, Mr King said that upside inflationary pressures including the current round of wage talks had made it necessary to implement the unexpected rise.

"By responding early to changes in the inflation outlook, the MPC ultimately needs to raise interest rates by less than would be the case if we delayed," he said.


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