MPC dissenters voted for interest rate rise

21-02-2007

MPC dissenters voted for interest rate rise
Two members of the monetary policy committee (MPC) voted against the decision to freeze the interest rate and would have pushed for an increase, the latest minutes reveal.

Tim Besley and Andrew Sentance indicated they would have preferred an increase of 0.25 percentage points, taking the rate up to 5.5 per cent, after a 7-2 decision to keep the base rate at 5.25 per cent.

For the majority of the MPC the key factor in keeping the rate on hold was the projections published in the inflation report released to the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, on February 14th.

While the UK's GDP continued to develop and data indicated steady growth in household spending and corporate investment, consumer price index inflation fell to 2.7 per cent, shrinking back from the three per cent threshold reached in January.

In addition, announcements from major utilities firms on the morning of the MPC interest rate meeting of cuts in electricity and gas retail prices also had a bearing on the decision to keep rates on hold.

However, the minutes reveal a degree of conflict in the economic indicators for both inflation and the broader impact of the interest rate trajectory.

Signs of an impact on the housing market emerged, while wages and prices steadily rose against a backdrop of debate over the "degree of spare capacity in the economy".

As such the MPC revealed "there was a greater than usual uncertainty over the outlook for inflation", with some members believing successive rate rises in close proximity would constrict the economy and others pointing to robust demand which would ride out any hikes.

Further uncertainty in the near term over the path of retail gas and electricity prices meant there were a "range of views among the committee on both the central projection and the balance of risks".

Next month's decision will now be closely scrutinised, with the dissenting opinion of two of the MPC likely to fuel expectations of a rate rise in the near future.

The key will be whether inflation stabilises or if price increases and steady demand pushes the rate above a level the MPC deems to be acceptable.



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