Global oil demand 'to grow 37%' by 2030


World demand for oil is predicted to increase by 37 per cent by 2030, according to the International Energy Outlook 2006 report.

With transport needs likely to play a leading role in pushing demand upwards, the annual report by the US-based Energy Information Administration's (EIA) forecast a surge in demand to 118 million barrels per day (bpd) from the present 86 million bpd.

Demand in non-OECD countries is expected to grow, boosted by demand in India and China.

But oil production in Norway, Europe's largest producer, is expected to slump from the present 3.6 million bpd level to 2.5 million bpd by 2030.

Oil cartel Opec's share of supply is also expected to drop off from 39.7 per cent to 38.4 per cent as west Africa and the Caspian area increase production.

But Opec countries are predicted to increase their supply of oil by 14.6 million bpd between 2003 and 2030.

As 38 per cent of the world's total energy consumption was from oil in 2003, the EIA said the figure could fall by five per cent by 2030.

The US will remain the single largest consumer of petrol, consuming 27.6 million bpd, up from this year's 20.8 million figure.

The report also says that coal use will grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 per cent over the same period, with demand for natural gas to rise by 2.4 per cent per year.

Demand for hydroelectricity and other renewable energy sources is projected to grow by 2.4 per cent per year.

Global nuclear capacity is also projected to rise from 361 gigawatts in 2003 to 438 gigawatts in 2030.

Worldwide, consumption of electricity from nuclear power is set to increase from 2,523 billion kilowatt hours in 2003 to 3,299 billion kilowatt hours in 2030, the report noted.

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