Factory output dips

05-11-2007

Factory output dips
Factory output unexpectedly fell in September, dropping the greatest amount in seven months and throwing the expected outcome of this week's interest rate decision into doubt.

Manufacturing output fell 0.6 per cent over the month, the steepest fall since February, according to data released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS).

The surprise drop follows the 0.4 per cent rise recorded in August and comes despite analyst expectations of a rise in factory output for September.

Widespread decreases in output were experienced across the manufacturing sector in September, according to the ONS, with a significant fall of 1.7 per cent recorded by the electrical and optical equipment industries.

Manufacturing output was unchanged on a quarterly basis, while mining and quarrying output dipped by 1.3 per cent when measured on the same basis.

However output for the electricity, gas and water supply industries increased by 0.8 per cent in the quarter to the end of September.

Global Insight chief economist Howard Archer had predicted that manufacturing output would show a 0.2 per cent rise in September, following the publication of recent healthy survey evidence for the sector.

However he stressed that the latest data showed that conditions in the industry had deteriorated last month.

"It does seem that the manufacturing sector is coming under increasing pressure from the credit crunch, strong pound, higher interest rates, elevated oil prices and some slowdown in demand from key export markets," Mr Archer said last week.

Meanwhile some analysts have suggested that the outcome of this Thursday's interest rate decision by the Bank of England is now uncertain.

A number of economists have predicted that the central bank will opt to keep the UK's benchmark interest rate on hold at 5.75 per cent this month, but some now believe that signs of weakening across the economy have increased the chances of a rate cut being announced.

"A 'no change' decision is not a done deal and we see a significant chance of a cut," Investec chief economist Philip Shaw was quoted as saying by the Reuters news agency.

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