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The governor of the Bank of England today looks set to pen a letter to the chancellor explaining why he is missing the government's inflation target.

Today the Office for National Statistics (ONS) will realise inflation data for August – and if as expected – the consumer prices index is over three per cent, Mervyn King will have to write to Alistair Darling.

With inflation currently at 4.4 per cent and set to remain high off the back of rising food and fuel prices, a letter seems a certainty.

Yesterday Mr King is believed to have received early confirmation of the CPI and sent a letter to Mr Darling.

The letter – the third he will have sent – will outline why the target of two per cent was missed and what measures the Bank of England will take to maintain its position.

Mr King is likely to explain the Bank's monetary policy committee (MPC) – which sets interest rates – expects inflation to rise in the run-up to Christmas before falling in 2009 back to target.

He is also expected to claim any interest rate rise – usually enacted to cut inflation – was unnecessary given the slowing economy, while the MPC would not be rushed into making quick cuts for the sake of the economy.

Mr Darling's response to the letter is not due to be castigating and should accept Mr King's arguments, although moves behind the scenes may be different.

At a press conference earlier in the year, Mr King admitted the current cycle of high inflation could warrant as many as three letters – written every three months – as the MPC looks at the long view over the rising cost of living.

Yesterday the CBI predicted the UK was heading into recession and inflation would peak at 4.8 per cent before dropping.

As the economy slows, the Bank of England is under increasing pressure to cut interest rates, as lower borrowing costs increases spending and investment which boost the economy.